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Updated: May 30, 2026

Split Point Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of Thermal-Optical Organic/Elemental Carbon Measurements
Published on: September 7, 2019
The persistently variable "background" stratospheric aerosol layer and global climate change
S Solomon1, J S Daniel, R R Neely
1Chemical Sciences Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USA. susan.solomon@colorado.edu
Stratospheric aerosols are not constant but variable, increasing since 2000. This increase has caused a negative radiative forcing, reducing global warming and impacting climate model projections.
Area of Science:
- Atmospheric science
- Climate science
- Earth system science
Background:
- The stratospheric aerosol layer, previously assumed constant, is now understood to be persistently variable.
- Major volcanic eruptions are not the sole drivers of stratospheric aerosol changes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze recent trends in stratospheric aerosol abundance.
- To quantify the radiative forcing associated with observed stratospheric aerosol changes.
- To assess the implications of these changes for climate model projections of global warming.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of multiple independent data sets, including near-global satellite aerosol data.
- Calculation of radiative forcing based on stratospheric aerosol abundance changes.
- Comparison of observed aerosol trends with climate model assumptions.
Main Results:
- Stratospheric aerosol abundance has demonstrably increased since the year 2000.
- This increase has resulted in a negative radiative forcing of approximately -0.1 W/m², mitigating recent global warming.
- Historical data (1960-1990) suggest a further negative radiative forcing of about -0.1 W/m².
Conclusions:
- Observed increases in stratospheric aerosols are actively reducing global warming.
- Climate models that do not account for these aerosol changes will likely overestimate future radiative forcing and global warming.
- Continued presence or increase of these aerosols necessitates adjustments in climate change predictions.
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