An index for estimating probabilities of surgical success for cataract patients with retinal disease

Patients with cataracts and coincident retinal disease are at increased risk for unsuccessful cataract surgery. We developed a method for estimating probabilities of surgical success for older cataract patients with retinal disease. Using data from a prospective study of cataract surgery outcomes, 36 patients with both cataracts and retinal disease were identified, 13 of whom attained surgical success with 20/40 or better vision 4 months after surgery. Age, presurgical Snellen letter acuity, location of retinal lesions, and presurgical visual function in everyday life (newspaper reading or television viewing) were all reliable correlates of surgical outcome. These data were analyzed using multiple logistic regression to develop a clinical index combining presurgical Snellen letter acuity, location of retinal lesions, and age to predict surgical success. The resulting index demonstrated 83% sensitivity and 85% specificity in sample data, correctly predicting 83% of patients (predictive value positive: 73%; predictive value negative: 90%).