Statistical validation of event predictors: a comparative study based on the field of seizure prediction

The prediction of events is of substantial interest in many research areas. To evaluate the performance of prediction methods, the statistical validation of these methods is of utmost importance. Here, we compare an analytical validation method to numerical approaches that are based on Monte Carlo simulations. The comparison is performed in the field of the prediction of epileptic seizures. In contrast to the analytical validation method, we found that for numerical validation methods insufficient but realistic sample sizes can lead to invalid high rates of false positive conclusions. Hence we outline necessary preconditions for sound statistical tests on above chance predictions.