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Related Experiment Video

Updated: May 30, 2026

Measurement of Aerosols Optical Thickness of the Atmosphere using the GLOBE Handheld Sun Photometer

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Published on: May 29, 2019

Satellite methods underestimate indirect climate forcing by aerosols.

Joyce E Penner¹, Li Xu, Minghuai Wang

¹Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA. penner@umich.edu

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

|August 3, 2011

Summary

Satellite estimates of the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) are significantly lower than model estimates. This study reveals that current satellite methods underestimate AIE by 3-6 times, highlighting uncertainties in climate forcing assessments.

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Last Updated: May 30, 2026

Measurement of Aerosols Optical Thickness of the Atmosphere using the GLOBE Handheld Sun Photometer

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Published on: May 29, 2019

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Split Point Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of Thermal-Optical Organic/Elemental Carbon Measurements

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Published on: September 7, 2019

Area of Science:

Atmospheric Science
Climate Science
Aerosol Science

Background:

Satellite estimates of the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) are smaller than global aerosol model estimates, leading to significant uncertainties in climate forcing.
Current satellite methods infer preindustrial cloud properties from present-day relationships between cloud drop number concentrations (N(c)) and aerosol optical depths (AODs).

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate why satellite-based AIE estimates differ from global aerosol model estimates.
To evaluate the accuracy of using present-day empirical relationships to determine preindustrial cloud properties and AIE.

Main Methods:

Utilized a model with realistic aerosol and cloud processes to simulate present-day (PD) and preindustrial (PI) atmospheric conditions.
Compared AIE estimates derived from satellite-based methods (using PD relationships) with those derived from actual PD and PI N(c) values.

Main Results:

Empirical relationships derived from PD data do not accurately represent the perturbation caused by anthropogenic aerosols.
Satellite method-based AIE estimates were found to be 3 to over 6 times smaller than model estimates using actual PD and PI N(c) values.
Using Aerosol Index (AI) improved N(c) and forcing estimates but still showed regional inaccuracies and potential global average forcing biases of 25-35%.

Conclusions:

Current satellite methods for estimating AIE are likely underestimating its magnitude due to inaccurate representation of preindustrial conditions.
Refined methods, such as using Aerosol Index, offer improvements but still require regional validation to reduce uncertainties in climate forcing assessments.