[Study on forecasting local rubella outbreaks in Hangzhou city proper by serologic method]

Rubella outbreaks were proved by the rubazyme M test (Abbott) and rubella haemagglutination inhibition test in Hangzhou city in 1987. On the basis of these and previous immune surveillance in human population, we predict that epidemic of rubella will also occur in recent two years. Rubella IgM antibody was detected by enzyme immunoassay using commercially available Rubazyme-M Diagnostic Kit (Abbott Laboratories). It was detected within 0-66 days after eruption and detection rate was the highest between 5th and 14th day of onset. The coincidence rate of enzyme immunoassay and HAI tests for rubella diagnosis was 90.3%, and false negative rate of enzyme immunoassay was 9.7%. Besides, the importance of differentiating measles from rubella and diagnostic criteria of HAI test for rubella were discussed.