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Related Experiment Video

Updated: May 30, 2026

Linking Predation Risk, Herbivore Physiological Stress and Microbial Decomposition of Plant Litter

Linking Predation Risk, Herbivore Physiological Stress and Microbial Decomposition of Plant Litter

Published on: March 12, 2013

How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics.

Trine Dalkvist¹, Richard M Sibly, Chris J Topping

¹Centre for Integrated Population Ecology, Roskilde University, Roskilde, Denmark. dal@dmu.dk

|August 11, 2011

Summary

Habitat fragmentation and specialist predators drive population cycles in Fennoscandian microtines. These factors, not breeding season length, are key to understanding population dynamics and observed gradients.

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Area of Science:

Ecology
Population Dynamics
Mathematical Biology

Background:

Microtine populations in Fennoscandia exhibit a north-south gradient, transitioning from cyclical to stable dynamics.
This gradient is often linked to predator-prey interactions and environmental spatial structure, factors not fully explored.
The north-south gradient in breeding season length is also noted but its role in population cycles is understudied.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the drivers of microtine population cycles and the Fennoscandian gradient using agent-based modeling.
To disentangle the effects of habitat fragmentation, predator specialization, and breeding season length on population dynamics.

Main Methods:

A spatially explicit agent-based model simulating field vole (Microtus agrestis) behavior and ecology was developed.
Time series data on vole densities were generated and analyzed using statistical autoregressive modeling.
The model incorporated variations in predator specialization, breeding season length, and habitat fragmentation.

Main Results:

Population cycles in microtines necessitate both habitat fragmentation and the presence of specialist predators.
Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly synergistically determined the length and amplitude of population cycles.
The length of the vole breeding season had a minimal impact on population oscillations.

Conclusions:

Agent-based modeling successfully distinguished causal factors difficult to isolate in field experiments.
Results align with Fennoscandian observations and offer explanations for observed population cycle gradients.
Landscape fragmentation is a critical factor for population cycling, necessitating its consideration in future analyses of vole dynamics.