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Updated: May 30, 2026

A Large Animal Model for Acute Kidney Injury by Temporary Bilateral Renal Artery Occlusion
Published on: February 2, 2021
Which method of estimating renal function is the best predictor of mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting?
A H M van Straten1, M A Soliman Hamad, B M J A Koene
1Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Catharina Hospital, Michelangelolaan 2, PO Box 1350, 5602 ZA, Eindhoven, the Netherlands.
Insights
Creatinine clearance (CrCl) best predicts mortality after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. This method, using the Cockcroft-Gault formula, offers superior prediction for early and late mortality compared to other renal function estimates.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Nephrology
- Medical Statistics
Background:
- Estimating renal function in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery lacks standardized definitions.
- Varied methods for assessing renal function may impact the accuracy of predicting patient outcomes post-CABG.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine the optimal method for estimating renal function as a predictor of mortality following CABG.
- To compare the predictive power of serum creatinine (SeCr), creatinine clearance (CrCl), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (e-GFR) for CABG patient mortality.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of preoperative and postoperative renal function data from 9987 patients undergoing isolated CABG (1998-2007).
- Renal function was estimated using SeCr, CrCl (Cockcroft-Gault formula), and e-GFR (MDRD formula).
- Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were utilized to assess discriminatory power.
Main Results:
- Creatinine clearance (CrCl) demonstrated the highest discriminatory power for predicting both early and late mortality.
- Estimated glomerular filtration rate (e-GFR) showed moderate predictive ability, while serum creatinine (SeCr) was the least effective.
- Preoperative parameters generally showed stronger associations with early mortality than postoperative parameters.
Conclusions:
- The Cockcroft-Gault formula for creatinine clearance (CrCl) is the most effective method for predicting early and late mortality after CABG.
- The relationship between renal function and mortality is non-linear, suggesting limitations in current risk stratification models.
- Reconsideration of renal function assessment within risk scoring systems like EuroSCORE is warranted.
Objectives:
Definitions of renal function in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) vary in the literature. We sought to investigate which method of estimating renal function is the best predictor of mortality after CABG.
Methods:
We analysed the preoperative and postoperative renal function data from all patients undergoing isolated CABG from January 1998 through December 2007. Preoperative and postoperative renal function was estimated using serum creatinine (SeCr) levels, creatinine clearance (CrCl) determined by the Cockcroft-Gault formula and the glomerular filtration rate (e-GFR) estimated by the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the ROC curves were calculated.
Results:
In 9987 patients, CrCl had the best discriminatory power to predict early as well as late mortality, followed by e-GFR and finally SeCr. The odds ratios for preoperative parameters for early mortality were closer to 1 than those of the postoperative parameters.
Conclusions:
Renal function determined by the Cockcroft-Gault formula is the best predictor of early and late mortality after CABG. The relationship between renal function and mortality is non-linear. Renal function as a variable in risk scoring systems such as the EuroSCORE needs to be reconsidered.
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