Which method of estimating renal function is the best predictor of mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting?

A H M van Straten1, M A Soliman Hamad, B M J A Koene

  • 1Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Catharina Hospital, Michelangelolaan 2, PO Box 1350, 5602 ZA, Eindhoven, the Netherlands.

Insights

Creatinine clearance (CrCl) best predicts mortality after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. This method, using the Cockcroft-Gault formula, offers superior prediction for early and late mortality compared to other renal function estimates.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Nephrology
  • Medical Statistics

Background:

  • Estimating renal function in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery lacks standardized definitions.
  • Varied methods for assessing renal function may impact the accuracy of predicting patient outcomes post-CABG.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To determine the optimal method for estimating renal function as a predictor of mortality following CABG.
  • To compare the predictive power of serum creatinine (SeCr), creatinine clearance (CrCl), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (e-GFR) for CABG patient mortality.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of preoperative and postoperative renal function data from 9987 patients undergoing isolated CABG (1998-2007).
  • Renal function was estimated using SeCr, CrCl (Cockcroft-Gault formula), and e-GFR (MDRD formula).
  • Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were utilized to assess discriminatory power.

Main Results:

  • Creatinine clearance (CrCl) demonstrated the highest discriminatory power for predicting both early and late mortality.
  • Estimated glomerular filtration rate (e-GFR) showed moderate predictive ability, while serum creatinine (SeCr) was the least effective.
  • Preoperative parameters generally showed stronger associations with early mortality than postoperative parameters.

Conclusions:

  • The Cockcroft-Gault formula for creatinine clearance (CrCl) is the most effective method for predicting early and late mortality after CABG.
  • The relationship between renal function and mortality is non-linear, suggesting limitations in current risk stratification models.
  • Reconsideration of renal function assessment within risk scoring systems like EuroSCORE is warranted.
Abstract

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