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Removal of Exogenous Materials from the Outer Portion of Frozen Cores to Investigate the Ancient Biological Communities Harbored Inside

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Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming.

Charles D Koven¹, Bruno Ringeval, Pierre Friedlingstein

¹Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Centre National de Recherche Scientifique/Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France. cdkoven@lbl.gov

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

|August 20, 2011

Summary

Permafrost soils store vast carbon. Warming may cause Arctic ecosystems to release CO(2) and CH(4), potentially amplifying climate change, unlike previous estimates.

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Area of Science:

Earth System Science
Climate Science
Ecology

Background:

Permafrost soils store large amounts of organic carbon.
Warming temperatures can increase respiration rates, releasing carbon and potentially creating a positive feedback loop for climate change.
Previous models did not fully account for permafrost carbon dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

To explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks in high-latitude terrestrial ecosystems.
To investigate the shift from carbon sink to source under future climate scenarios.
To quantify changes in carbon and methane emissions from permafrost regions.

Main Methods:

Utilized a terrestrial ecosystem model incorporating permafrost carbon dynamics.
Included factors like respiration inhibition in frozen layers and CH(4) emissions from flooded areas.
Model was calibrated against circumpolar soil carbon stock inventories.

Main Results:

Arctic ecosystems (north of 60°N) may transition from a CO(2) sink to a source by 2100 under an SRES A2 scenario.
Total carbon change from 1860-2100 shifts from a sink of 68 Pg to a source of 4 ± 18 Pg.
Climate change may induce a carbon loss of 25 ± 3 to 85 ± 16 Pg C, with a best estimate of 62 ± 7 Pg C.
Methane emissions are projected to increase from 34 Tg CH(4)/y to 41-70 Tg CH(4)/y.

Conclusions:

Permafrost thaw and associated carbon release represent a significant positive feedback to climate change.
High-latitude ecosystems could become a net source of greenhouse gases.
Model results highlight the critical role of permafrost dynamics in future climate projections.