Strategies for reforestation under uncertain future climates: guidelines for Alberta, Canada

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Forestry
• Climate Change Adaptation

Background:

• Traditional reforestation relies on local seed, assuming optimal adaptation to current environments.
• Recent climate trends in western Canada invalidate this assumption for commercial forestry.
• Reforestation planning must account for changing climate conditions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop reforestation recommendations using alternative species and genotypes viable under future climate scenarios.
• To assess the suitability of different tree populations for projected climates in western Canada.
• To inform climate-adaptive forestry practices.

Main Methods:

• An ecosystem-based bioclimate envelope modeling approach was used for western North America.
• Multi-model climate projections for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s were utilized.
• Habitat suitability for locally adapted tree populations was projected.

Main Results:

• Genotypes adapted to drier conditions are projected to be preferred planting stock in much of Alberta's boreal forest.
• No non-native species currently absent from Alberta can be confidently recommended for reforestation.
• Significant uncertainties in habitat projections complicate long-term reforestation planning beyond the 2050s.

Conclusions:

• Shifting to alternative planting stock suitable for future climates is a cost-effective climate change adaptation strategy for Alberta's forestry sector.
• Assisted migration prescriptions, based on projected habitat for locally adapted populations, are a viable strategy for adapting to new climatic realities.
• Current reforestation practices can be safely adjusted to align with observed climate change and near-term projections.