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Age-specific mortality risk from pandemic influenza
Junling Ma1, Jonathan Dushoff, David J D Earn
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada.
Journal of Theoretical Biology
|August 23, 2011
Summary
Influenza pandemics disproportionately affect younger age groups. This study suggests that "antigenic imprinting," influenced by early infections, significantly impacts age-specific influenza mortality patterns during pandemics.
Area of Science:
- Immunology
- Epidemiology
- Virology
Background:
- Younger populations experience higher mortality during influenza pandemics compared to seasonal epidemics.
- Potential mechanisms include over-reactive immune responses (cytokine storm) in the young, cross-immunity from prior infections in the old (antigenic history), and the lifelong impact of the first influenza A infection (antigenic imprinting).
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate whether proposed immunological mechanisms can explain the observed age-specific mortality patterns in influenza pandemics.
- To analyze the role of antigenic imprinting in shaping age-specific virulence during pandemics.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a comprehensive database of individual deaths in Canada spanning from 1951 to 1999.
- Analyzed mortality patterns, specifically focusing on the 1957 influenza pandemic, to assess the influence of antigenic imprinting.
Main Results:
- The mortality patterns observed during the 1957 pandemic provide evidence that antigenic imprinting is a crucial factor in determining age-specific influenza virulence.
- Both major antigenic shift and drift years significantly contribute to the formation of these antigenic imprints.
Conclusions:
- Antigenic imprinting, shaped by initial influenza A infections, plays a significant role in age-specific mortality during influenza pandemics.
- Understanding these imprinting effects can aid pandemic preparedness by identifying age groups likely to exhibit differential responses to novel influenza strains.
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