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Age-specific mortality risk from pandemic influenza

Junling Ma1, Jonathan Dushoff, David J D Earn

  • 1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada.

Journal of Theoretical Biology
|August 23, 2011
PubMed

Insights

Influenza pandemics disproportionately affect younger age groups. This study suggests that "antigenic imprinting," influenced by early infections, significantly impacts age-specific influenza mortality patterns during pandemics.

Area of Science:

  • Immunology
  • Epidemiology
  • Virology

Background:

  • Younger populations experience higher mortality during influenza pandemics compared to seasonal epidemics.
  • Potential mechanisms include over-reactive immune responses (cytokine storm) in the young, cross-immunity from prior infections in the old (antigenic history), and the lifelong impact of the first influenza A infection (antigenic imprinting).

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate whether proposed immunological mechanisms can explain the observed age-specific mortality patterns in influenza pandemics.
  • To analyze the role of antigenic imprinting in shaping age-specific virulence during pandemics.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a comprehensive database of individual deaths in Canada spanning from 1951 to 1999.
  • Analyzed mortality patterns, specifically focusing on the 1957 influenza pandemic, to assess the influence of antigenic imprinting.

Main Results:

  • The mortality patterns observed during the 1957 pandemic provide evidence that antigenic imprinting is a crucial factor in determining age-specific influenza virulence.
  • Both major antigenic shift and drift years significantly contribute to the formation of these antigenic imprints.

Conclusions:

  • Antigenic imprinting, shaped by initial influenza A infections, plays a significant role in age-specific mortality during influenza pandemics.
  • Understanding these imprinting effects can aid pandemic preparedness by identifying age groups likely to exhibit differential responses to novel influenza strains.

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