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Predictive modeling the physician assistant supply: 2010-2025.

Roderick S Hooker1, James F Cawley, Christine M Everett

  • 1The Lewin Group, Falls Church, VA, USA. rod.hooker@lewin.com

Public Health Reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974)
|September 3, 2011
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

The number of clinically active physician assistants (PAs) is projected to increase by 72% in 15 years. Understanding attrition rates is crucial for accurate future workforce planning.

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Area of Science:

  • Health Workforce Planning
  • Medical Education & Policy

Background:

  • Healthcare reform in 2010 identified physician assistants (PAs) as crucial for addressing an anticipated doctor shortage.
  • Accurate workforce projections are essential for effective planning and resource allocation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the projected number of clinically active physician assistants (PAs) to provide rational estimates for workforce planners.
  • To forecast the growth of the PA workforce over a 15-year period.

Main Methods:

  • A simulation model was developed using 2010 as a baseline for the active PA workforce.
  • The model incorporated historical trends, current supply, graduation rates, program expansion, and attrition estimates.
  • Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the impact of parameter variations on projected PA supply.

Main Results:

  • In 2010, there were 74,476 active PAs; the mean age was 42, and 65% were female.
  • With a 7% increase in graduate entry and a 5% annual attrition rate, the PA supply is projected to reach 127,821 by 2025.
  • The proportion of clinically active PAs in primary care was modeled to remain stable at 34%.

Conclusions:

  • The clinically active PA workforce is expected to grow by nearly 72% over 15 years.
  • Attrition rates, particularly retirement patterns, require further investigation as they significantly impact supply projections.
  • Policy initiatives promoting PA education and primary care may lead to a higher concentration of PAs in primary care than currently modeled.