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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
A spatially explicit estimate of avoided forest loss
Jordi Honey-Rosés1, Kathy Baylis, M Isabel Ramírez
1Department of Urban and Regional Planning, 111 Temple Buell Hall, 611 Taft Drive, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61820, USA. jhoney@post.harvard.edu
Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
|September 10, 2011
Summary
Conservation efforts in Mexico protected valuable monarch butterfly habitat, preserving up to 710 hectares. Spatial analysis revealed these programs effectively conserve forest cover, contrary to previous estimates.
Area of Science:
- Conservation Science
- Ecology
- Environmental Policy
Background:
- Forest conservation programs are expanding due to climate change agreements, necessitating accurate impact assessment.
- Conventional evaluation methods for conservation impact are often biased due to a lack of spatial consideration and proper comparison groups.
- Effective conservation strategies require robust methodologies to measure outcomes like avoided forest loss.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the effectiveness of a conservation initiative combining protected areas and payments for environmental services.
- To measure the impact on overwintering habitat for the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) in Mexico.
- To evaluate avoided forest loss using a spatial-matching estimator.
Main Methods:
- Employed a spatial-matching estimator to compare protected and unprotected lands with similar characteristics (accessibility, governance, forest type).
- Measured avoided forest loss by analyzing changes in forest cover.
- Compared forest cover on matched protected and unprotected areas to determine conservation impact.
Main Results:
- Contrary to conventional estimates, the conservation measures were found to be preserving forest cover.
- The initiative protected 200-710 hectares (3-16%) of high-quality monarch butterfly habitat.
- A smaller impact was observed on total forest cover, preserving 0-200 hectares (0-2.5%) of forest with canopy cover >70%.
Conclusions:
- Spatial analysis is crucial for accurate estimation of avoided forest loss, accounting for landscape-level patterns.
- The conservation initiative demonstrated success in preserving critical monarch butterfly habitat.
- The methods and findings provide a foundation for future evaluations of conservation outcomes, particularly for carbon finance initiatives.
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