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Related Experiment Video

Updated: May 29, 2026

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Published on: July 24, 2016

Developing consistent scenarios to assess flood hazards in mountain streams.

B Mazzorana¹, F Comiti, C Scherer

¹Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Autonomous Province of Bolzano, Cesare Battisti Str. 23, Bolzano 39100, Italy. bruno.mazzorana@provincia.bz.it

Journal of Environmental Management

|September 13, 2011

Summary

Extreme events in mountain streams involve complex tipping processes. This study introduces a new expert-based method to map these natural hazard scenarios and their probabilities for better flood risk management.

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Area of Science:

Hydrology
Natural Hazards
Risk Management

Background:

Steep mountain streams are prone to extreme events with multiple tipping process patterns.
Uncertainties in hydrological cause-effect chains pose challenges for flood risk management.

Purpose of the Study:

To present a novel expert-based methodology for unfolding natural hazard process scenarios in mountain streams.
To retrace the probabilistic structure of these scenarios for improved hazard assessment.

Main Methods:

System representation for natural hazard process routing.
Formative Scenario Analysis to derive consistent natural hazard process patterns.
Expert elicitation to determine the spatial probabilistic structure of scenario trajectories.

Main Results:

The methodology effectively unfolds complex natural hazard process patterns in mountain streams.
Probabilistic structures of individual scenario trajectories are identified through expert input.
Embedded examples demonstrate the practical applicability of the developed method.

Conclusions:

The presented approach offers significant advantages for hazard assessment over traditional methods.
This methodological advancement enhances the risk governance process for mountain stream hazards.