Neural network approach to reference evapotranspiration modeling from limited climatic data in arid regions

In order to better manage the limited water resources in arid regions, accurate determination of plant water requirements is necessary. For that, the evaluation of reference evapotranspiration (ET0)--a basic component of the hydrological cycle--is essential. In this context, the Penman Monteith equation, known for its accuracy, requires a high number of climatic parameters that are not always fully available from most meteorological stations. Our study examines the effectiveness of the use of artificial neural networks (ANN) for the evaluation of ET0 using incomplete meteorological parameters. These neural networks use daily climatic data (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and the insolation duration) as inputs, and ET0 values estimated by the Penman-Monteith formula as outputs. The results show that the proper choice of neural network architecture allows not only error minimization but also maximizes the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables. In fact, with a network of two hidden layers and eight neurons per layer, we obtained, during the test phase, values of 1, 1 and 0.01 for the determination coefficient, the criterion of Nash and the mean square error, respectively. Comparing results between multiple linear regression and the neural method revealed the good modeling quality and high performance of the latter, due to the possibility of improving performance criteria. In this work, we considered correlations between input variables that improve the accuracy of the model and do not pose problems of multi-collinearity. Furthermore, we succeeded in avoiding overfitting and could generalize the model for other similar areas.