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Related Experiment Video

Updated: May 28, 2026

Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach
04:35

Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach

Published on: July 3, 2020

Estimating the under-five mortality rate using a bayesian hierarchical time series model.

Leontine Alkema1, Wei Ling Ann

  • 1Department of Statistics and Applied Probability, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore. alkema@nus.edu.sg

Plos One
|October 5, 2011
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces a new time series model for estimating under-five mortality rates, allowing for smoother trends and better insights into changes. This approach aids in monitoring progress towards global child mortality reduction goals.

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Last Updated: May 28, 2026

Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach
04:35

Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach

Published on: July 3, 2020

Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Biostatistics
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Millennium Development Goal 4 targets a two-thirds reduction in under-five mortality by 2015.
  • Current estimation methods often assume a constant rate of decline within countries.
  • The United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation provides country-level data.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose an alternative statistical model for estimating under-five mortality rates.
  • To allow for a smoothly varying rate of decline over time, moving beyond piece-wise constant assumptions.
  • To improve the accuracy and insightfulness of child mortality estimations.

Main Methods:

  • A time series model is proposed to estimate under-five mortality.
  • A Bayesian hierarchical model facilitates information exchange between countries regarding decline rates.
  • Cross-validation was used to assess the model's calibration and credibility.

Main Results:

  • The proposed model yields smoother trends in under-five mortality.
  • Credible bounds for under-five mortality rates are provided and appear well-calibrated.
  • New insights into changes in the rate of decline within countries are generated.

Conclusions:

  • The new model removes the piece-wise linear restriction on the rate of decline.
  • Hierarchical modeling enables information sharing across countries.
  • Improved estimates and uncertainty assessments can better track progress on Millennium Development Goal 4.