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Inducing Meningococcal Meningitis Serogroup C in Mice via Intracisternal Delivery

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Published on: November 5, 2019

A space-time conditional intensity model for invasive meningococcal disease occurrence.

Sebastian Meyer¹, Johannes Elias, Michael Höhle

¹Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, 80336 München, Germany. Sebastian.Meyer@med.uni-muenchen.de

|October 11, 2011

Summary

A new spatiotemporal model quantifies meningococcal transmission dynamics. Spread depends on bacterial type and age, with distinct basic reproduction numbers for types B and C.

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Area of Science:

Epidemiology
Mathematical Modeling
Infectious Disease Dynamics

Background:

Meningococcal disease remains a significant public health concern.
Understanding transmission dynamics is crucial for effective control strategies.
Previous models may not fully capture complex spatiotemporal patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop and validate a novel continuous space-time point process model.
To quantify the transmission dynamics of two common meningococcal sequence types in Germany (2002-2008).
To investigate the influence of bacterial type and age on disease spread.

Main Methods:

Utilized a conditional intensity function (CIF) framework.
Modeled CIF using a superposition of additive and multiplicative components.
Implemented the methodology in the R package 'surveillance' for practical application.

Main Results:

Demonstrated that meningococcal spread is dependent on both antigenic sequence type and host age.
Calculated basic reproduction numbers: 0.25 (95% CI 0.19-0.34) for type B:P1.7-2,4:F1-5 and 0.11 (95% CI 0.07-0.17) for type C:P1.5,2:F3-3.
The model provides a universal regression framework for self-exciting spatiotemporal point processes.

Conclusions:

The proposed point process model effectively quantifies meningococcal transmission dynamics.
Findings highlight type-specific and age-dependent transmission patterns.
The R package implementation facilitates broader use in epidemiological practice.