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Updated: May 28, 2026

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
Improving interMediAte risk management. MARK study
Ruth Martí1, Dídac Parramon, Luís García-Ortiz
1Unitat d'Investigació en Atenció Primària de Girona, IDIAP Jordi Gol, Institut Català de la Salut 11, Girona 17071, Espanya.
Insights
This study investigates if arterial stiffness, glucose levels, and comorbidities improve cardiovascular risk prediction in intermediate-risk patients. Findings aim to enhance early detection and prevention strategies for vascular events.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Public Health
- Preventive Medicine
Background:
- Current cardiovascular risk functions inadequately identify over 50% of patients who develop cardiovascular disease, particularly those at intermediate risk.
- Clinical management of intermediate-risk patients is challenging due to prediction limitations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine if ankle-brachial index (ABI), arterial stiffness measures, postprandial glucose, glycosylated hemoglobin, self-measured blood pressure, and comorbidities are independently associated with vascular events.
- To assess if these factors can enhance the predictive capacity of existing risk equations in intermediate-risk populations.
Main Methods:
- A multicenter cohort of 2688 intermediate-risk patients without prior atherosclerotic disease was recruited.
- Data collected included socio-demographics, lifestyle, comorbidities, ABI, arterial stiffness (pulse wave velocity, cardio ankle vascular index), blood pressure, and metabolic markers (lipids, glucose, HbA1c).
- Patients were followed for 18 months, with longer-term follow-ups planned, to ascertain the incidence of vascular events.
Main Results:
- Analysis will determine the independent association of proposed risk factors with vascular event incidence.
- The study will evaluate the improvement in risk prediction when these factors are added to current risk equations.
Conclusions:
- Improving cardiovascular disease risk prediction is crucial for effective primary prevention and public health.
- Enhanced risk stratification in intermediate-risk populations can lead to timely and efficient implementation of preventive measures.
- This research has the potential for immediate clinical and public health impact by refining risk assessment strategies.
Background:
Cardiovascular risk functions fail to identify more than 50% of patients who develop cardiovascular disease. This is especially evident in the intermediate-risk patients in which clinical management becomes difficult. Our purpose is to analyze if ankle-brachial index (ABI), measures of arterial stiffness, postprandial glucose, glycosylated hemoglobin, self-measured blood pressure and presence of comorbidity are independently associated to incidence of vascular events and whether they can improve the predictive capacity of current risk equations in the intermediate-risk population.
Methods/Design:
This project involves 3 groups belonging to REDIAPP (RETICS RD06/0018) from 3 Spanish regions. We will recruit a multicenter cohort of 2688 patients at intermediate risk (coronary risk between 5 and 15% or vascular death risk between 3-5% over 10 years) and no history of atherosclerotic disease, selected at random. We will record socio-demographic data, information on diet, physical activity, comorbidity and intermittent claudication. We will measure ABI, pulse wave velocity and cardio ankle vascular index at rest and after a light intensity exercise. Blood pressure and anthropometric data will be also recorded. We will also quantify lipids, glucose and glycosylated hemoglobin in a fasting blood sample and postprandial capillary glucose. Eighteen months after the recruitment, patients will be followed up to determine the incidence of vascular events (later follow-ups are planned at 5 and 10 years). We will analyze whether the new proposed risk factors contribute to improve the risk functions based on classic risk factors.
Discussion:
Primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases is a priority in public health policy of developed and developing countries. The fundamental strategy consists in identifying people in a high risk situation in which preventive measures are effective and efficient. Improvement of these predictions in our country will have an immediate, clinical and welfare impact and a short term public health effect.
Trial Registration:
Clinical Trials.gov Identifier: NCT01428934.
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