[Surgical risk in old age. Prospective evaluation of a prognosis index]

A prognostic index of octogenarians was calculated by a critical retrospective analysis of our results of the outcome after operations. In the years 1986-1988 this index was prospective validated at 381 patients over 80 years old. The accuracy was 85%. The other quality parameter (sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values) of the decision point of our prognostic model reached good or very good values too. This results showed the possibility of application for the recommended prognostic index. In the last three years the postoperative mortality has fallen essential in general surgery. At present the mortality estimate 20% for emergency and elective operations for the whole hospital stay of the patients. The direct clinical utility of risk analyses to work out prognostically statements was proved by this study.