Cascade vulnerability for risk analysis of water infrastructure

Area of Science:

• Urban water management
• Infrastructure reliability
• Risk assessment

Background:

• Urban water systems (potable water distribution and urban drainage) are critical infrastructure, demanding high reliability.
• Current risk assessments often overlook simultaneous and cascading failures, treating events as singular and independent.
• Vulnerability, the susceptibility to harm from perturbations, is a key factor in assessing infrastructure resilience.

Purpose of the Study:

• To introduce and define "cascade vulnerability" for water infrastructure.
• To develop and present cascade vulnerability maps for water distribution and urban drainage systems.
• To highlight the underestimation of risks when cascading effects are ignored in assessments.

Main Methods:

• Development of the "cascade vulnerability" concept to encompass linked and simultaneous failures.
• Application of the "Achilles-Approach" to create cascade vulnerability maps.
• Comparative analysis of risk scenarios with and without consideration of cascading effects.

Main Results:

• Cascade vulnerability maps for water distribution and urban drainage systems were generated.
• The study demonstrates that neglecting cascading effects leads to a significant underestimation of potential risks.
• The "Achilles-Approach" provides a framework for mapping and assessing cascade vulnerability.

Conclusions:

• Cascade vulnerability is a critical factor for accurate risk assessment in urban water management.
• Ignoring cascading failures results in a dangerous underestimation of infrastructure risks.
• The developed methodology offers a more comprehensive approach to understanding and mitigating risks in water infrastructure.