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The self-consistency model of subjective confidence
1Department of Psychology/Institute of Information Processing and Decision Making, University of Haifa, Israel. akoriat@research.haifa.ac.il
People monitor answer correctness using self-consistency, basing confidence on consistent evidence retrieval. This model explains confidence-accuracy links and overconfidence bias, with response speed and accessibility as contributing factors.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Decision Making
- Metacognition
Background:
- Understanding how individuals assess the correctness of their judgments is crucial in cognitive science.
- Confidence judgments play a key role in metacognition and decision-making processes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose and validate a self-consistency model for confidence judgments and accuracy.
- To investigate the relationship between confidence, consistency, and accuracy in decision-making.
Main Methods:
- Participants answered 2-alternative questions, retrieving samples of representations to base confidence on consistency.
- Confidence was modeled using statistical level of confidence (SLC) principles.
- Inter-participant consensus and intra-participant consistency were analyzed for majority and minority choices.
Main Results:
- The self-consistency model successfully predicted confidence-accuracy relationships across various tasks.
- Confidence-accuracy relationship is a byproduct of the consistency-correctness relationship.
- Overconfidence bias arises from a reliability-validity discrepancy, with confidence monitoring reliability (self-consistency).
Conclusions:
- Self-consistency is a primary mechanism for monitoring answer correctness and informing confidence.
- Response speed and information accessibility are additional cues influencing self-consistency and confidence.
- The findings offer insights into metacognitive processes and potential biases in judgment.
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