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Updated: May 28, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Effects of demographic noise on the synchronization of a metapopulation in a fluctuating environment
Yi Ming Lai1, Jay Newby, Paul C Bressloff
1Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, 24-26 St Giles, Oxford OX1 3LB, United Kingdom.
Abstract:
We use the theory of noise-induced phase synchronization to analyze the effects of demographic noise on the synchronization of a metapopulation of predator-prey systems within a fluctuating environment (Moran effect). Treating each local predator-prey population as a stochastic urn model, we derive a Langevin equation for the stochastic dynamics of the metapopulation. Assuming each local population acts as a limit cycle oscillator in the deterministic limit, we use phase reduction and averaging methods to derive the steady-state probability density for pairwise phase differences between oscillators, which is then used to determine the degree of synchronization of the metapopulation.
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