Aedes larval population dynamics and risk for dengue epidemics in Malaysia

Early detection of a dengue outbreak is an important first step towards implementing effective dengue interventions resulting in reduced mortality and morbidity. A dengue mathematical model would be useful for the prediction of an outbreak and evaluation of control measures. However, such a model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological, ecological and entomological data. A field study was conducted to collect and analyse various parameters to model dengue transmission and outbreak. Dengue prone areas in Kuala Lumpur, Pahang, Kedah and Johor were chosen for this study. Ovitraps were placed outdoor and used to determine the effects of meteorological parameters on vector breeding. Vector population in each area was monitored weekly for 87 weeks. Weather stations, consisting of a temperature and relative humidity data logger and an automated rain gauge, were installed at key locations in each study site. Correlation and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) model were used to study the relationship among the variables. Previous week rainfall plays a significant role in increasing the mosquito population, followed by maximum humidity and temperature. The secondary data of rainfall, temperature and humidity provided by the meteorological department showed an insignificant relationship with the mosquito population compared to the primary data recorded by the researchers. A well fit model was obtained for each locality to be used as a predictive model to foretell possible outbreak.