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Risk, uncertainty and regulation.

¹Jesus College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3DW, UK. john.krebs@zoo.ox.ac.uk

Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences

|November 2, 2011

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Understanding scientific evidence, risk assessment, and regulation is crucial. This review explores how subjective risk perceptions and scientific uncertainty influence regulatory policy, using pesticide, bovine tuberculosis, and alcohol pricing examples.

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Area of Science:

Environmental Science
Public Health
Risk Management

Background:

Risk assessment involves scientific evidence, which can be ambiguous.
Subjective risk perceptions often differ from objective assessments.
Disagreement among experts on risk magnitude is common.

Purpose of the Study:

To review the complex relationship between scientific evidence, uncertainty, risk, and regulation.
To explore how differing definitions and perceptions of risk impact policy.
To illustrate these concepts using real-world regulatory examples.

Main Methods:

Literature review of scientific evidence, risk assessment, and regulatory frameworks.
Analysis of the translation of risk assessment into policy decisions.
Case study analysis of pesticide regulation, bovine tuberculosis control, and alcohol pricing.

Main Results:

Risk has multiple interpretations, leading to divergence between objective and subjective assessments.
Scientific uncertainty and expert disagreement complicate risk assessment.
Policy decisions involve political judgment, considering risk acceptability and cost-benefit analyses.

Conclusions:

Effective regulation requires navigating scientific ambiguity and diverse risk perceptions.
Policy translation of risk assessment is inherently political.
Examples highlight challenges in regulating pesticides, animal diseases, and public health behaviors.