Signaling pathway-based identification of extensive prognostic gene signatures for lung adenocarcinoma

Tumor recurrence is the major cause of death in lung cancer treatment. To date, there is no clinically applied gene expression-based model to predict the risk for tumor recurrence in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We sought to embed crosstalk with major signaling pathways into biomarker identification. Three approaches were used to identify prognostic gene signatures from 442 lung adenocarcinoma samples. Candidate genes co-expressed with 6 or 7 major NSCLC signaling hallmarks were identified from genome-wide coexpression networks specifically associated with different prognostic groups. From these candidate genes, the first approach selected genes significantly associated with disease-specific survival using univariate Cox model. The second approach used random forests to refine the gene signatures; and the third approach used Relief algorithm to form the final gene sets. A total of 21 gene signatures were identified using these three approaches. These gene signatures generated significant prognostic stratifications (log-rank P<0.05 in Kaplan-Meier analyses; hazard ratio >1, P<0.05) in all tumors, stage I only, and in stage I patients not receiving chemotherapy in all training and test sets. In multivariate analyses with age, gender, race, smoking history, cancer stage, and tumor differentiation, a 10-gene signature had a hazard ratio of 3.23 (95% CI: [1.48, 7.06]), which was a more significant prognostic factor than other clinical factors, except cancer stage (III vs. I; with no significant difference). All identified 21 gene signatures outperformed other lung cancer signatures evaluated in the Director's Challenge Study. This study is an important step toward personalized prognosis of tumor recurrence and patient selection for adjuvant chemotherapy, with significant impact on down-stream clinical applications.