[Early death in vascular surgery: an ongoing prognostic problem]

Prediction of complications in surgery is commonly done. There are conflicting reports concerning the usefulness of risk scales (P-POSSUM, APACHE, SAPS, ASA, Goldman, etc.) in vascular surgery. We decided to take a fresh look at preoperative risk factors of early death in the context of the usefulness of some parameters which have not been included in existing risk calculators.

The study group consisted of 1270 patients treated at the Department of Vascular Surgery, General Surgery, and Angiology, Pomeranian Medical University in Szczecin, during one year. METHOD This was a prospective non-randomized study. All data recorded at admission and data from P-POSSUM, ASA, Goldman, and ECOG-Zubroda-WHO scales were analyzed. Statistics were done with discriminant, multivariate, and logistic tests.

There were 42 early deaths in the group. The following independent risk factors were involved in early death: ASA > 2 (OR = 18.31), persistent atrial fibrillation (OR = 5.75), leukocytosis (OR = 13.31), glomerular filtration rate (GFR) < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (OR = 5.78), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) (OR = 11.36), emergency admission (OR = 38.62), critical limb ischemia (OR = 4.87), acute limb ischemia (OR = 8,98), abdominal aortic aneurysm (OR = 4.4), and ruptured aortic aneurysm (OR = 10.59). Logistic regression exposed the influence of five factors: ASA III, ASA IV, persistent atrial fibrillation, leukocytosis, GFR < 30 mL/kg/1.73 m2, and ruptured aortic aneurysm. The P-POSSUM calculator was found to be an accurate predictor of early death although the predicted death rate was insignificantly higher than the observed rate.

Risk scales of early death currently used in vascular surgery need to be "refreshed". Creation of the Polish National Vascular Surgery Register seems to be unavoidable.