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Changes in childlessness in the United States: A demographic path analysis
Population Studies
|November 11, 2011
Summary
Marital childlessness in United States women has increased since 1960, particularly for those under 30. Structural changes like higher education enrollment and later marriage ages significantly explain this trend.
Area of Science:
- Sociology
- Demography
- United States Social Trends
Background:
- Marital childlessness rates among United States women have shown notable changes since 1940.
- Recent decades have observed an increasing trend in childlessness, especially among younger married women.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze changes in marital childlessness incidence among United States women since 1940.
- To test a predictive model explaining the rise in childlessness.
Main Methods:
- Utilized U.S. Bureau of the Census data.
- Developed a path model incorporating changes in marriage age, education, labor force participation, student enrollment, marital disruption, and urbanization between 1960-1970.
- Analyzed quarter-year age cohort data from 1960 and 1970 Public Use Samples.
Main Results:
- A significant increase in childlessness was observed for married women under 30 years of age since 1960.
- The developed model explained a substantial portion of the observed increase in childlessness.
- Increased educational enrollment, labor force participation, and a higher mean age at first marriage were key factors.
Conclusions:
- Structural societal changes play a crucial role in predicting trends of marital childlessness.
- These findings highlight the interplay between socioeconomic factors and fertility decisions in the United States.
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