A method for deriving mortality estimates from incomplete vital Statistics

Summary Although they are available in many developing countries vital registration records are very little used for mortality estimation which is still mainly based on census returns. However, defective death records may yield accurate estimations of mortality. This procedure requires few data only; a sex-age distribution of the population (preferably at the middle of a period) and a sexage distribution of deaths, either derived from vital records or from census returns to questions relating to deaths during the preceding twelve months. This method is based on the observation that for a fixed age structure of the population, there is a one-one relation between the age structure of deaths (measured by the proportion of deaths at older ages) and the level of mortality (measured by the death rate above a certain minimum age). It is assumed that at ages above this minimum the rate of underregistration of deaths does not vary significantly with age. Therefore, the age distribution of registered deaths makes it possible to estimate the true proportion of deaths at older ages. This in its turn will permit the estimation of the true level of mortality, because of the relation which exists between age structure of deaths and level of mortality. The true level is then compared with the observed, to estimate the rate of underregistration, and observed age-specific death rates can be adjusted in the light of this knowledge.