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Simple estimation and test procedures in capture-mark-recapture mixed models.

J D Lebreton1, R Choquet, O Gimenez

  • 1CEFE, UMR 5175, CNRS, 1919 Route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier cedex 5, France. jean-dominique.lebreton@cefe.cnrs.fr

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Testing environmental covariate effects in capture-recapture models with random effects is crucial. Simple permutation and analysis of deviance tests are recommended over biased likelihood ratio tests for accurate results.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Population Biology
  • Statistical Modeling

Background:

  • Capture-recapture models are essential for estimating population sizes and survival rates.
  • Incorporating random effects alongside fixed effects (e.g., environmental covariates) is increasingly recognized as vital.
  • Existing formal methods for capture-recapture mixed models are complex, hindering widespread adoption by biologists.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate simple statistical procedures for testing environmental covariate effects in capture-recapture models with random effects.
  • To assess the performance of different tests, specifically the likelihood ratio test, permutation tests, and analysis of deviance tests.
  • To provide practical recommendations for biologists using these models.

Main Methods:

  • The study evaluates simple tests for covariate effects on parameters like time-varying survival probabilities.
  • It specifically examines the bias of the likelihood ratio test in the presence of random effects.
  • Permutation tests and analysis of deviance tests are investigated as alternatives.

Main Results:

  • The standard likelihood ratio test is shown to be strongly biased, frequently detecting a covariate effect when none exists.
  • Permutation tests and analysis of deviance tests demonstrate proper behavior and reliability.
  • The proposed methods are applicable to generalized linear mixed models.

Conclusions:

  • Simple permutation and analysis of deviance tests are reliable and recommended for testing environmental covariate effects in capture-recapture models with random effects.
  • Biologists should avoid the biased likelihood ratio test in such scenarios.
  • These findings facilitate the broader application of capture-recapture mixed models in ecological research.