[Study on prognosis of threatened abortion assessed by multivariate analysis]

The serum concentrations of various hormones which included hPL, progesterone(P), estradiol(E2) and 17 alpha-hydroxyprogesterone (17P) in serum, and hCG in urine were measured simultaneously in patients with threatened abortion to evaluate the prognosis. Ultrasound scanning was also undertaken. One hundred and thirty-six patients at 5 to 8 weeks of gestation were divided into two groups retrospectively. Group A consisted of 99 patients with a good prognosis and group B consisted of 37 patients who aborted spontaneously. The mean concentrations of hormones, and ultrasound findings (GS, CRL and FHM) were not significantly different in both groups at 5 weeks. An attempt was made to apply the data to the computation in multivariate analysis. By discriminant analysis, 100% reliability was achieved in separating the two groups according to hormone levels only at this stage of pregnancy. At 6 weeks, the hCG, P and E2 values were statistically higher in group A than B. Because of the overlapping of the data, principal component analysis was attempted. Two groups were roughly separated. The values for factor loading indicated that GS, CRL and 17P effective in making the separation possible. At 7 and 8 weeks of gestation, the mean concentrations of hCG, hPL, P and E2 were significantly higher in A than B. The factor loading values indicated that ultrasound findings were essential in separating into two groups. These results suggested that hormonal analysis may be useful in assessing the prognosis in threatened abortion in the early stage of gestation (5 and 6 weeks), while ultrasound findings make an accurate prediction for the prognosis possible after 7 weeks of gestation.