A novel morbidity prediction model for head and neck oncosurgery

The purpose of the study was to construct and validate a risk model to predict morbidity in head and neck oncosurgeries. Potential risk factors of 300 surgically treated head and neck cancer patients like age, sex, tumor site, TNM stage, duration of surgery, adjunctive treatment, comorbidities and alcohol and tobacco usage were analyzed. Postoperative complications were noted. We developed a logistic model to predict the probability of patients developing morbidity based on the statistically significant variables-duration of surgery, preoperative radiation and hypertension. The validity of the test was assessed by the c-index which were 0.79 (95% C.I 0.71-0.87) for the study set (250 patients) and 0.86(95% C.I 0.73-0.90) for the test set (50 patients). The correlation of observed to expected morbidity was 0.709 (P < 0.0001). We validated a risk model and constructed a simple chart that provides us an assessment of the risk of a patient of developing morbidity.