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Updated: May 26, 2026

A Modeling and Simulation Method for Preliminary Design of an Electro-Variable Displacement Pump

A Modeling and Simulation Method for Preliminary Design of an Electro-Variable Displacement Pump

Published on: June 1, 2022

Incorporating calibrated model parameters into sensitivity analyses: deterministic and probabilistic approaches.

Douglas C A Taylor¹, Vivek Pawar, Denise T Kruzikas

¹OptumInsight, Medford, MA02155, USA. doug.taylor@optum.com

Pharmacoeconomics

|December 14, 2011

Summary

Calibration uncertainty significantly increases the uncertainty of mathematical model results, particularly in cost-effectiveness analyses for vaccines. Performing sensitivity analyses for calibration is crucial for accurate health economic evaluations.

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Last Updated: May 26, 2026

A Modeling and Simulation Method for Preliminary Design of an Electro-Variable Displacement Pump

A Modeling and Simulation Method for Preliminary Design of an Electro-Variable Displacement Pump

Published on: June 1, 2022

Area of Science:

Health economics
Mathematical modeling
Epidemiology

Background:

Mathematical models are essential for assessing health interventions like vaccines.
Calibration uncertainty can impact the reliability of model outputs.
Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and cervical disease models are used for vaccine cost-effectiveness studies.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the impact of calibration uncertainty on mathematical model outcomes.
To identify key factors contributing to calibration uncertainty.
To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical HPV vaccine.

Main Methods:

Developed a lifetime Markov model for HPV natural history.
Calibrated model transition probabilities using published data and the Nelder-Mead simplex method.
Conducted conventional probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and a calibration PSA with varied parameters.

Main Results:

Initial calibration yielded an ICER of $US 4300 per QALY.
Conventional PSA showed a 95% credible interval from dominant to $US 9800.
Calibration PSA revealed a wider ICER range of $US 1000 to $US 37,700.

Conclusions:

Calibration PSA demonstrates greater uncertainty in cost-effectiveness results than conventional PSA.
Sensitivity analyses for model calibration are vital.
Accounting for calibration uncertainty improves the robustness of health economic models.