Cross-generational effects of climate change on expression of a sexually selected trait

Sexually selected traits and early breeding are often correlated with quality in birds: individuals that breed earlier in the season have more elaborate traits and raise more surviving offspring [1, 2]. As global climate warms, breeding date for many temperate birds is advancing [3, 4], but we lack corresponding information on climate-induced variation in sexual selection. Here, we investigated influences of climate on a sexually selected plumage trait in a Himalayan warbler (Phylloscopus humei). We found that when spring is warm, birds breed early. Subsequent to an early-breeding year, adults express relatively large sexually selected traits and rear offspring that also develop large traits. The positive effects of early breeding, plus the across-year correlation between parent and offspring cohorts, predict that warmer climates should lead to increases in trait size. However, trait size has not increased over the past 25 years, even though mean breeding date has advanced. We show that whereas warm springs have positive effects on trait size, warm summers have negative effects due to increased feather wear. Apparent stasis in the size of a sexually selected trait thus masks large, conflicting influences of climate change. Continued climate warming has the potential to affect the honesty of sexual signals, as trait expression and condition become increasingly disassociated.