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The Peptic Ulcer Perforation (PULP) score: a predictor of mortality following peptic ulcer perforation. A cohort
M H Møller1, M C Engebjerg, S Adamsen
1Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Copenhagen University Hospital Bispebjerg, Denmark. mortenhylander@gmail.com
Insights
A new Peptic Ulcer Perforation (PULP) score accurately predicts 30-day mortality in surgical patients. This clinical rule aids in risk stratification and triage for perforated peptic ulcer cases.
Area of Science:
- Surgery
- Gastroenterology
- Clinical Prediction Models
Background:
- Accurate identification of high-risk surgical patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is crucial for effective triage and risk stratification.
- Existing clinical rules may not fully capture the complexity of PPU patient outcomes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a novel, improved clinical prediction rule for 30-day mortality in patients undergoing surgery for PPU.
Main Methods:
- A nationwide cohort study utilizing prospectively collected data from 2668 patients across 35 Danish hospitals.
- Patients were surgically treated for gastric or duodenal PPU between February 2003 and August 2009.
- The study focused on 30-day mortality as the primary outcome measure.
Main Results:
- The newly developed Peptic Ulcer Perforation (PULP) score, comprising eight variables, demonstrated strong predictive performance for 30-day mortality (AUC 0.83).
- Key predictors included age > 65, active malignancy, liver cirrhosis, steroid use, delayed admission (>24h), pre-operative shock, elevated creatinine, and ASA score.
- The PULP score outperformed both the Boey score (AUC 0.70) and the ASA score alone (AUC 0.78).
Conclusions:
- The PULP score provides accurate prediction of 30-day mortality in patients operated on for PPU.
- This new clinical rule can significantly assist in the risk stratification and triage of PPU patients.
Background:
Accurate and early identification of high-risk surgical patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is important for triage and risk stratification. The objective of the present study was to develop a new and improved clinical rule to predict mortality in patients following surgical treatment for PPU.
Design:
nationwide cohort study based on prospectively collected data.
Setting:
thirty-five hospitals in Denmark.
Patients:
a total of 2668 patients surgically treated for gastric or duodenal PPU between 1 February 2003 and 31 August 2009.
Outcome Measure:
30-day mortality.
Results:
We derived a new clinical prediction rule for 30-day mortality and evaluated and compared its prognostic performance with the American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) and Boey scores. A total of 708 patients (27%) died within 30 days of surgery. The Peptic Ulcer Perforation (PULP) score - comprised eight variables with an adjusted odds ratio of more than 1.28: 1) age > 65 years, 2) active malignant disease or AIDS, 3) liver cirrhosis, 4) steroid use, 5) time from perforation to admission > 24 h, 6) pre-operative shock, 7) serum creatinine > 130 μM, and 8) the four levels of the ASA score (from 2 to 5). The score predicted mortality well (area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) 0.83). It performed considerably better than the Boey score (AUC 0.70) and better than the ASA score alone (AUC 0.78).
Conclusion:
The PULP score accurately predicts 30-day mortality in patients operated for PPU and can assist in risk stratification and triage.
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