The Peptic Ulcer Perforation (PULP) score: a predictor of mortality following peptic ulcer perforation. A cohort

M H Møller1, M C Engebjerg, S Adamsen

  • 1Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Copenhagen University Hospital Bispebjerg, Denmark. mortenhylander@gmail.com

Insights

A new Peptic Ulcer Perforation (PULP) score accurately predicts 30-day mortality in surgical patients. This clinical rule aids in risk stratification and triage for perforated peptic ulcer cases.

Area of Science:

  • Surgery
  • Gastroenterology
  • Clinical Prediction Models

Background:

  • Accurate identification of high-risk surgical patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is crucial for effective triage and risk stratification.
  • Existing clinical rules may not fully capture the complexity of PPU patient outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a novel, improved clinical prediction rule for 30-day mortality in patients undergoing surgery for PPU.

Main Methods:

  • A nationwide cohort study utilizing prospectively collected data from 2668 patients across 35 Danish hospitals.
  • Patients were surgically treated for gastric or duodenal PPU between February 2003 and August 2009.
  • The study focused on 30-day mortality as the primary outcome measure.

Main Results:

  • The newly developed Peptic Ulcer Perforation (PULP) score, comprising eight variables, demonstrated strong predictive performance for 30-day mortality (AUC 0.83).
  • Key predictors included age > 65, active malignancy, liver cirrhosis, steroid use, delayed admission (>24h), pre-operative shock, elevated creatinine, and ASA score.
  • The PULP score outperformed both the Boey score (AUC 0.70) and the ASA score alone (AUC 0.78).

Conclusions:

  • The PULP score provides accurate prediction of 30-day mortality in patients operated on for PPU.
  • This new clinical rule can significantly assist in the risk stratification and triage of PPU patients.
Abstract

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