Post-release dispersal in animal translocations: social attraction and the "vacuum effect"

Animal translocations are human-induced colonizations that can represent opportunities to contribute to the knowledge on the behavioral and demographic processes involved in the establishment of animal populations. Habitat selection behaviors, such as social cueing, have strong implications on dispersal and affect the establishment success of translocations. Using modeling simulations with a two-population network model (a translocated population and a remnant population), we investigated the consequences of four habitat selection strategies on post-translocation establishment probabilities in short- and long-lived species. Two dispersal strategies using social cues (conspecific attraction and habitat copying) were compared to random and quality-based strategies. We measured the sensitivity of local extinctions to dispersal strategies, life cycles, release frequencies, remnant population and release group sizes, the proportion of breeders and the connectivity between populations. Our results indicate that social behaviors can compromise establishment as a result of post-release dispersal, particularly in long-lived species. This behavioral mechanism, the "vacuum effect", arises from increased emigration in populations that are small relative to neighboring populations, reducing their rate of population growth. The vacuum effect can drive small remnant populations to extinction when a translocated group is large. In addition, the magnitude of the vacuum effect varies non-linearly with connectivity. The vacuum effect represents a novel form of the behaviorally mediated Allee effect that can cause unexpected establishment failures or population extinctions in response to social cueing. Accounting for establishment probabilities as a conditional step to the persistence of populations would improve the accuracy of predicting the fates of translocated or natural (meta)populations.