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Increased migration in host-pathogen metapopulations can cause host extinction.

K C Harding¹, M Begon, A Eriksson

¹Department of Marine Ecology, University of Gothenburg, Box 100, SE40530 Gothenburg, Sweden. karin.harding@marecol.gu.se

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Summary

Increasing habitat connectivity for endangered metapopulations can be risky. New models show Allee effects and pathogen spillover can lead to extinction, even in stable systems.

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Area of Science:

Ecology
Epidemiology
Conservation Biology

Background:

Migration impacts host-pathogen metapopulations through colonization and disease spread.
Previous models suggested increased migration benefits endangered metapopulations by reducing infection.
Limited understanding exists on how complex factors influence migration effects.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the complex effects of migration on host-pathogen metapopulations.
To incorporate Allee effects, pathogen spillover, and differential host colonization.
To re-evaluate the management recommendation of increasing habitat connectivity.

Main Methods:

Extended existing metapopulation models.
Included Allee effects in host colonization rates.
Modeled pathogen spillover from a second host species.
Accounted for differential colonization success of infected and healthy hosts.

Main Results:

Metapopulation dynamics are highly sensitive to migration rates.
Allee effects increase vulnerability to pathogen spillover.
Metapopulation extinction can arise from endemic coexistence.
Increased connectivity may be detrimental without detailed biological knowledge.

Conclusions:

Increasing metapopulation connectivity is a risky management strategy.
Allee effects and pathogen spillover can destabilize host-pathogen systems.
Management decisions require thorough understanding of host-pathogen-environment interactions.