Revisiting the psychology of intelligence analysis: from rational actors to adaptive thinkers

Intelligence analysis is a decision-making process rife with ambiguous, conflicting, irrelevant, important, and excessive information. The U.S. Intelligence Community is primed for psychology to lend its voice to the "analytic transformation" movement aimed at improving the quality of intelligence analysis. Traditional judgment and decision making research serves as a starting point, though recent developments in decision science advance additional relevant perspectives that are critical to improving intelligence analysis. Naturalistic decision making offers insights into the challenging information world of intelligence analysis and expert judgment. Research on group decision making shows that group processes are often dependent on the distribution of information within the group, while information foraging theory suggests that intelligence analysts may be viewed as "informavores" who use adaptive strategies to form key judgments efficiently. Psychologists should capitalize on these advances in research and theory to engage the intelligence community on its own grounds and take the lead on intelligence analytic reform. A potential research agenda and recommendations to optimize intelligence community effectiveness are offered.