Ionized calcium, parathormone, and mortality in critically ill surgical patients

A prospective study measured ionized calcium and parathormone sequentially at 48- to 72-hour intervals in 25 surgical intensive care unit patients. Twelve patients (48%) died at mean day 40 and median day 26. Levels of ionized calcium, parathormone, blood urea nitrogen, creatinine, albumin, magnesium, and phosphate for patients who lived were compared with levels for patients who died. The incidence of hypotension, renal failure (creatinine greater than or equal to 3.0), and bacteremia, as well as the amount of red cell, crystalloid, and colloid administration for the two groups was compared. Hypotension, bacteremia, red cells, crystalloid, and colloid were no different. On days 1 and 2 ionized calcium levels were significantly lower and parathormone levels significantly higher in nonsurviving patients; this difference persisted through days 3 and 4. Blood urea nitrogen and creatinine levels increased early in nonsurviving patients but renal failure, which occurred in nine nonsurviving patients, did not develop until mean day 14, median day 18. The phosphate level was slightly higher but still within normal range in nonsurviving patients. By days 5 and 6 ionized calcium and parathormone levels were no different in nonsurviving patients, despite there being no improvement in renal function. Magnesium and albumin levels were no different between groups. Ionized calcium levels are lower and parathormone levels higher early in nonsurviving patients. This difference is not readily explained by associated clinical conditions, including renal dysfunction. Although etiology remains unclear, low ionized calcium and elevated parathormone are early predictors of mortality in critically ill surgical patients.