Modelling Factors Causing Mortality in Oesophageal VaricesPatients in King Abdul Aziz University Hospital

The objective of this study is to reach a model defining factors precipitating short survival in patients with oesophageal varices and improving the understanding of such factors. Models would help to prioritize the clinical goals and intervention for saving the lives of patients.

Retrospective analysis of all patients admitted to King Abdul Aziz University Hospital who had been diagnosed with oesophageal varices. The patients' demographics, disease history, physical examination, viral infections, parasitic infections, blood pictures, cancer biomarkers, liver enzymes and bleeding details were collected, tested for correlation with mortality to formulate a model.

A total of 148 patients were included in this study. 37 clinical variables were studied only 15 factors were found to have a statistical significance. These factors were PT (RC=0.17338 P-value 0.00011), APTT (RC=0.07916, P-value 0.00002), haemoglobin level (RC=-0.44748, P-value <0.0001), WBC (RC = 0.22255, P-value 0.00001), serum albumin level (RC=-0.12953, P-value 0.00001), serum creatinine (RC=0.01483, P-value 0.00002), at least one incidence of encephalopathy (RC=1.80500, P-value 0.00014), total bilirubin (RC=0.01371, P-value 0.00016), direct bilirubin (RC=0.01298, P-value 0.00357, serum AST (RC=0.00914, P-value 0.00462), presence of at least bleeding event (RC=1.03373, P-value 0.00613), ascites grade I (RC=-1.57435, P-value 0.00967), SBP (RC=1.47216, P-value 0.01581), platelets count (RC=0.00398, P-value 0.03476) and oesophageal varices (RC = -1.42139, P-value 0.03673). Only 5 factors were likely to affect the mortality status. These factors were encephalopathy, spontaneous SBP, bleeding, ascites and grade of oesophageal varices. Six models were then formulated.

These models should be retested in larger study groups to test their reliability in order to use them as surrogate end point in future clinical studies.