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A bivariate negative binomial model to explain traffic accident migration.

M J Maher1

  • 1Traffic Safety Division, Transport and Road Research Laboratory, Crowthorne, Berkshire, United Kingdom.

Accident; Analysis and Prevention
|October 1, 1990
PubMed
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Regression to the mean can bias traffic accident studies. This paper explains accident "migration" as a statistical artifact, not a physical phenomenon, using a new probability model.

Area of Science:

  • Traffic Safety
  • Statistical Modeling
  • Road Accident Analysis

Background:

  • Regression to the mean is a known bias in remedial treatment studies for traffic accident blackspots.
  • Accident 'migration,' where untreated neighboring sites show increased accidents, has been previously reported, posing challenges for treatment effectiveness assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explain the accident migration effect using purely probabilistic terms.
  • To demonstrate that migration is a statistical artifact, not a physical phenomenon.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a new bivariate negative binomial distribution model.
  • Incorporation of spatial correlation between true mean site accident rates.

Main Results:

Related Experiment Videos

  • The study explains the accident migration effect through probabilistic terms.
  • The selection process for remedial treatments introduces bias, similar to regression to the mean.

Conclusions:

  • Accident migration is a consequence of statistical conditioning in site selection, not physical movement of accidents.
  • The findings clarify the interpretation of remedial treatment effectiveness in traffic safety studies.