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Cognitive function, numeracy and retirement saving trajectories.

James Banks1, Cormac O'Dea, Zoë Oldfield

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Cognitive abilities, specifically numeracy, impact wealth trajectories before and after retirement. However, retirement expectations and income replacement rates show similar patterns across different numeracy levels.

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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Cognitive Science
  • Gerontology

Background:

  • Understanding the economic and cognitive factors influencing retirement is crucial for financial planning and policy.
  • Cognitive abilities, such as numeracy, may play a significant role in shaping individuals' financial decision-making throughout their lives.
  • Longitudinal studies are essential for tracking changes in economic outcomes and cognitive function over time, particularly during the retirement transition.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between cognitive abilities (numeracy and broader cognitive function) and economic outcomes during the retirement transition.
  • To determine if baseline cognitive abilities predict trajectories of wealth, retirement income, and retirement expectations.
  • To analyze differences in wealth trajectories and retirement-related financial metrics based on numeracy levels.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) with baseline measurements from 2002.
  • Employed longitudinal analysis to examine trajectories of economic outcomes (wealth, retirement income, retirement expectations).
  • Assessed the predictive power of baseline numeracy and broader cognitive ability on these trajectories.

Main Results:

  • Lower numeracy was associated with distinct wealth trajectories both before and after retirement compared to individuals with higher numeracy.
  • Despite differences in wealth accumulation, the distributions of retirement expectations and net replacement rates were similar across numeracy groups.
  • Broader cognitive ability's predictive power on these specific economic outcomes requires further investigation.

Conclusions:

  • Cognitive skills, particularly numeracy, significantly influence long-term wealth accumulation patterns around retirement.
  • While wealth trajectories differ, core retirement planning indicators like expectations and income replacement rates appear less sensitive to numeracy variations.
  • Future research should explore the interplay of various cognitive functions and a wider range of economic behaviors in later life.