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Analysis of 18FDG PET/CT Imaging as a Tool for Studying Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection and Treatment in Non-human Primates
Published on: September 5, 2017
Modelling tuberculosis trends in the USA
A N Hill1, J E Becerra, K G Castro
1Division of Tuberculosis Elimination, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA. ahill2@cdc.gov
Abstract:
We present a mathematical transmission model of tuberculosis in the USA. The model is calibrated to recent trends of declining incidence in the US-born and foreign-born populations and is used in assessing relative impacts of treatment of latently infected individuals on elimination time, where elimination is defined as annual incidence <1 case/million. Provided current control efforts are maintained, elimination in the US-born population can be achieved before the end of this century. However, elimination in the foreign-born population is unlikely in this timeframe even with higher rates of targeted testing and treatment of residents of and immigrants to the USA with latent tuberculosis infection. Cutting transmission of disease as an interim step would shorten the time to elimination in the US-born population but foreign-born rates would remain above the elimination target.
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