Estimating diarrhea mortality among young children in low and middle income countries

Area of Science:

• Pediatric mortality research
• Global health epidemiology
• Infectious disease burden

Background:

• Diarrheal diseases are a primary cause of mortality in children under five years old.
• Accurate mortality data are scarce in low- and middle-income countries, necessitating updated estimates.
• Understanding the proportion of deaths due to diarrhea is crucial for public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the proportionate mortality attributable to diarrhea in children aged 1-59 months.
• To develop a model for estimating childhood mortality in countries with limited vital registration data.

Main Methods:

• A systematic literature review identified studies on diarrhea proportionate mortality (1980-2009).
• A logistic regression model was built using published estimates and country-level covariates.
• Monte-Carlo simulations were employed to estimate uncertainty bounds.

Main Results:

• Over 90 verbal autopsy studies contributed data to a single-cause model.
• Diarrhea proportionate mortality was estimated for 84 countries across 6 regions.
• Diarrhea accounted for 10.0% of deaths in the Americas and up to 31.3% in Southeast Asia.

Conclusions:

• Diarrhea remains a significant cause of death in children aged 1-59 months.
• Published literature can inform single-cause mortality models for data-poor settings.
• This approach provides valuable insights into childhood mortality patterns globally.