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Upper normal blood pressures predict incident atrial fibrillation in healthy middle-aged men: a 35-year follow-up

Irene Grundvold1, Per Torger Skretteberg, Knut Liestøl

  • 1Department of Cardiology, Oslo University Hospital, Ullevaal, PB 4956 Nydalen, 0424 Oslo, Norway. irgr@uus.no

Hypertension (Dallas, Tex. : 1979)
|January 19, 2012
PubMed

Insights

High normal blood pressure, even in healthy middle-aged men, significantly increases the long-term risk of developing atrial fibrillation (AF). This finding highlights the importance of monitoring blood pressure (BP) for preventing AF.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Epidemiology
  • Preventive Medicine

Background:

  • Hypertension is a primary risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF).
  • Recent studies indicate that even high-normal blood pressures (BPs) predict AF in women.
  • The long-term impact of upper normal BP on incident AF in men remains less understood.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the long-term association between upper normal blood pressure and incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in middle-aged men.
  • To assess the predictive value of different blood pressure categories for AF development over an extended follow-up period.

Main Methods:

  • A prospective, population-based study involving 2014 healthy Norwegian men examined between 1972-1975.
  • Standardized blood pressure measurements were taken at baseline.
  • Atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence was tracked through hospital discharge records for up to 35 years, analyzed using multivariate adjusted Cox proportional hazards models.

Main Results:

  • Men with baseline systolic BP ≥140 mm Hg had a 1.60-fold increased risk of AF compared to those with BP <128 mm Hg.
  • Upper normal systolic BP (128-138 mm Hg) was associated with a 1.50-fold increased AF risk.
  • Baseline diastolic BP ≥80 mm Hg increased AF risk by 1.79-fold; these associations remained significant after adjusting for diabetes and cardiovascular diseases.

Conclusions:

  • Upper normal blood pressure levels are significant long-term predictors of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in initially healthy middle-aged men.
  • Sustained upper normal systolic BP remains a predictor of subsequent AF, even years after initial assessment.
  • These findings suggest that blood pressure management, even within the upper normal range, may be crucial for AF prevention in men.

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