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Arctic ice cover, ice thickness and tipping points
1Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0WA, UK. p.wadhams@damtp.cam.ac.uk
Ambio
|January 20, 2012
Summary
Arctic sea ice extent and thickness are rapidly decreasing. Accelerated thinning and summer ice loss indicate a potential tipping point, leading to an ice-free Arctic in summer.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Cryosphere Studies
- Environmental Monitoring
Background:
- Arctic sea ice extent has historically decreased at 3-4% per decade.
- Since 1996, the rate of decline accelerated to 10% per decade.
- A significant collapse in sea ice extent occurred in summer 2007, reaching a record minimum.
Purpose of the Study:
- To summarize recent findings on Arctic sea ice changes.
- To investigate the causes behind these rapid changes.
- To review methods for monitoring Arctic sea ice thickness.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of historical sea ice extent and thickness data.
- Review of various ice thickness monitoring techniques.
- Inclusion of recent data from submarine-based observations.
Main Results:
- Arctic sea ice thickness has declined rapidly, with a 43% loss between the early 1970s and late 1990s.
- A substantial loss of mass from pressure ridges was observed.
- The 2007 summer ice extent minimum may result from combined long-term retreat and thinning.
Conclusions:
- Continued trends suggest an inevitable loss of summer Arctic sea ice.
- This represents a 'tipping point' beyond which a multi-year ice-covered Arctic cannot be recovered.
- Effective monitoring techniques are crucial for understanding these changes.
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