A spatio-temporal index for heat vulnerability assessment

The public health consequences of extreme heat events are felt most intensely in metropolitan areas where population density is high and the presence of the urban heat island phenomenon exacerbates the potential for prolonged exposure. This research develops an approach to map potential heat stress on humans by combining temperature and relative humidity into an index of apparent temperature. We use ordinary kriging to generate hourly prediction maps describing apparent temperature across the Greater Toronto Area, Canada. Meteorological data were obtained from 65 locations for 6 days in 2008 when extreme heat alerts were issued for the City of Toronto. Apparent temperature and exposure duration were integrated in a single metric, humidex degree hours (HDH), and mapped. The results show a significant difference in apparent temperature between built and natural locations from 3 PM to 7 AM; this discrepancy was greatest at 12 AM where built locations had a mean of 2.8 index values larger, t(71) = 5.379, p < 0.001. Spatial trends in exposure to heat stress (apparent temperature, ≥ 30°C) show the downtown core of the City of Toronto and much of Mississauga (west of Toronto) as likely to experience hazardous levels of prolonged heat and humidity (HDH ≥ 72) during a heat alert. We recommend that public health officials use apparent temperature and exposure duration to develop spatially explicit heat vulnerability assessment tools; HDH is one approach that unites these risk factors into a single metric.