Long-term outcomes of a pilot CT screening for lung cancer

Low-dose computed tomography (CT) screening can detect early stage lung cancer in high-risk populations. However, no data on repeated annual screening over more than 5 years are available, and the impact of screening on lung cancer mortality is controversial.

We analysed outcomes in high-risk asymptomatic volunteers (smokers and former smokers, >50 years) enrolled in a pilot study over 1 year from June 2000, who received annual low-dose CT for 7 years. Cumulative lung cancer incidence and survival were represented by Kaplan-Meier curves. Standardized incidence and mortality ratios were used to estimate risks relative to the general Italian and US population.

Compliance was 86% at the end of the seventh year in 1035 recruited volunteers (71% men, mean age 58 years). Lung cancer was diagnosed in 54 (5.3%); radical surgery was possible in 48/54 (87%); 39/54 (72%) had stage I disease. Five-year survival was 63% overall, 89% for stage I cases. During 6308 person-years of observation, 47 participants had died versus 75 expected in the Italian general population standardised for age and sex. Fourteen lung cancer deaths were registered versus 27 expected in a standardised US smoker population.

Seventy percent of screening-diagnosed patients had stage I disease, and the survival of screen-detected cancer patients was high. Lung cancer mortality was favourable compared to age- and sex-matched population of US smokers, suggesting that mortality can be lowered by screening, although larger trials with longer follow-up are necessary to confirm these findings.