A history of evidence in medical decisions: from the diagnostic sign to Bayesian inference

Bayesian inference in medical decision making is a concept that has a long history with 3 essential developments: 1) the recognition of the need for data (demonstrable scientific evidence), 2) the development of probability, and 3) the development of inverse probability. Beginning with the demonstrative evidence of the physician's sign, continuing through the development of probability theory based on considerations of games of chance, and ending with the work of Jakob Bernoulli, Laplace, and others, we will examine how Bayesian inference developed.