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Elemental-sensitive Detection of the Chemistry in Batteries through Soft X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy and Resonant Inelastic X-ray Scattering

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Evaluating rare earth element availability: a case with revolutionary demand from clean technologies.

Elisa Alonso¹, Andrew M Sherman, Timothy J Wallington

¹Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT/Room E38-432 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139-4307, USA.

Environmental Science & Technology

|February 7, 2012

Summary

Future rare earth element (REE) availability is threatened by high demand for electric vehicles and wind turbines, particularly for neodymium (Nd) and dysprosium (Dy). Without recycling, demand for these critical REEs could surge dramatically within 25 years.

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Area of Science:

Materials Science
Environmental Science
Economics

Background:

Future availability of rare earth elements (REEs) is a growing concern.
Monopolistic supply chains, unsustainable mining, and increasing demand pose significant risks.
REEs are critical components in green technologies like electric vehicles (EVs) and wind turbines.

Purpose of the Study:

To evaluate potential future demand scenarios for REEs.
To analyze the impact of increased adoption of EVs and wind energy on REE markets.
To assess the specific impact on neodymium (Nd) and dysprosium (Dy) availability.

Main Methods:

Development of upper and lower bound usage projections for REEs in key applications.
Scenario analysis focusing on the issue of comining.
Modeling future REE demand based on climate stabilization targets (e.g., 450 ppm CO2).

Main Results:

Increased adoption of EVs and wind turbines drives significant demand for Nd and Dy.
Without advancements in recycling or alternative technologies, demand for Nd and Dy could increase by over 700% and 2600%, respectively.
Current REE needs in automotive and wind sectors may represent future market trends.

Conclusions:

The projected demand for Nd and Dy poses a substantial challenge to future REE supply availability.
Efficient reuse, recycling, or development of alternative technologies are crucial for sustainable green energy transitions.
Policy and market strategies must address the concentrated demand for specific REEs to ensure supply chain stability.