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Moving-average trigger for early detection of rapidly increasing mortality in caged table-egg layers
Sasidhar Malladi1, J Todd Weaver, Timothy L Clouse
1Center for Animal Health and Food Safety, University of Minnesota, 1354 Eckles Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA. malla042@umn.edu
Avian Diseases
|February 9, 2012
Summary
A simple moving-average trigger effectively detects sudden, increased mortality in commercial poultry flocks, signaling potential disease outbreaks. This method offers earlier disease detection with fewer false alarms for poultry health surveillance.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary Epidemiology
- Poultry Health Management
- Disease Surveillance Systems
Background:
- Unexplained mortality in commercial poultry can indicate highly transmissible diseases, necessitating rapid surveillance system activation.
- Current disease detection relies on triggers when mortality exceeds normal limits, aiming for early identification.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the efficacy of a simple moving-average trigger for detecting disease syndromes in caged table-egg layer flocks.
- To compare the performance of a 7-day moving-average trigger against previously proposed triggers for disease detection.
Main Methods:
- Superimposing mortality data from highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks (model and natural) onto normal mortality data from 12 healthy flocks.
- Comparing the detection time and false-positive rates of 7-day moving-average triggers with existing triggers.
Main Results:
- The moving-average trigger demonstrated superior efficiency in detecting disease syndromes characterized by rapidly increasing mortality.
- This trigger resulted in a reduced number of false-positive alerts and enabled earlier disease detection compared to other methods.
- The method requires only 7 days of mortality data and is easily calculable using computer spreadsheets.
Conclusions:
- A 7-day moving-average trigger is a practical, cost-effective tool for early detection of disease in commercial egg-layer flocks.
- This trigger can be readily implemented by large commercial poultry operations as part of a production-based surveillance system.
- The moving-average trigger enhances the efficiency of infectious disease surveillance in poultry by providing timely alerts.
